| The class drop is one of the indicators that a horse will | | | | it will find it easier to pass the cheaper horses. Let's |
| run a better race, but will it run a faster race? The | | | | say that horse A has had a significant drop in class. In |
| answer is maybe. I'd like to give you something that | | | | its last race at a higher level it ran three lengths off the |
| was iron clad and guaranteed, but unfortunately, there | | | | lead to the half of 46 seconds, so its actual time for |
| is no way to say for sure that a horse will run faster | | | | the half was 46.3 (figuring that each length equals |
| against less talented horses. On the other hand, it | | | | approximately 1 tick). In that race, the horse who was |
| probably will, and in handicapping, as in most things in | | | | in the lead managed to finish the final quarter in 24 flat |
| life, a definite probably is about the best we can hope | | | | and horse A was only able to gain two lengths on the |
| for. | | | | leader and so lost by one length. |
| The reason a horse may run a faster time in a race is | | | | In the race against lesser rivals the first half may go at |
| because of the fractions it will run and run against. If | | | | 46.4, but horse A will still lay 3 lengths off the leader, |
| you want to see a real example of class, look at the | | | | meaning in this race horse A has gone the half mile 4 |
| actual fractions in horse races. You will notice that | | | | ticks slower and will be able to close more than 2 |
| classier horses can sustain faster fractions in more | | | | lengths in the stretch. In fact, because the early |
| than one part of the race. | | | | fractions were so soft, it may actually charge home |
| For instance, while a cheap claimer and a handicap | | | | and make up a lot of ground bettering its own time in |
| race may see the same fraction of 46 seconds flat | | | | the last race. |
| for the first half, the last two furlongs may be run | | | | The point is that taken as a whole, the combined |
| much faster and the horses that ran close to the lead | | | | fractions of any one horse will not equal the combined |
| may also finish faster than the cheap claimers. The | | | | fractions of horse A who will benefit from easy |
| fractions for each horse that belongs to a higher class, | | | | fractions in the beginning middle or end. if horse A |
| meaning that it actually can be competitive at a higher | | | | managed to finish the tougher race in 1:10.1, he may |
| level, will invariably be faster. | | | | easily finish this race in 1:10 flat or even faster. That |
| So when a horse drops in class, if it raced against | | | | length or more may be the difference between |
| horses that could sustain a faster first quarter and half, | | | | winning and finishing off the board. |