| A lot has been written and said about using jockey | | | | Umphrey, was being sent postward by another good |
| and trainer combinations or statistics to find good bets. | | | | combination, Eddie Castro and Richard Dutrow, Jr. |
| Almost everyone who handicaps horse races knows | | | | They have a strike rate of 58% in the money. |
| that there are some teams of jockeys and trainers | | | | Comparing the two rates of 58% to 75% we find that |
| that win a lot of races, or so it seems. | | | | Lezcano/Dutrow are in the money 25% more often. |
| But just how important is that fact when you are | | | | So just looking at that one statistic, it is obvious that flat |
| handicapping horse races? For instance, let's say you | | | | betting the Lezcano/Dutrow team will give you a 25% |
| see a great pair like Jose Lezcano and Anthony | | | | advantage. But now, here is the real key to finding |
| Dutrow, a jockey trainer combo with a 73% in the | | | | value, Mr. Umphrey has a morning line figure of 9-5, but |
| money record at Monmouth Park. How big of a factor | | | | actually went to post at even money. |
| is that? | | | | I realize this is a very simplistic example and I am |
| The question that you really have to ask yourself is | | | | outlining a simple process to find value, but it does |
| this, how much of an impact is that publicly known | | | | make you think, doesn't it? The connections are in the |
| information having upon the odds? That is what really | | | | money 25% more often. The horse is going off above |
| matters. Many racing programs and past | | | | morning line odds in a short field race. If you didn't have |
| performances now show those statistics so it is | | | | a lot of time to handicap the race and could only use |
| common knowledge and many people will jump all | | | | the toteboard, morning line, and jockey/trainer stats, |
| over it, or so it seems. | | | | which horse would you bet on? The obvious answer |
| An example is the third race at Monmouth on | | | | is Lemons of Love. |
| September 10th. It was a five horse race and the | | | | For anyone who used that simple bit of logic, the |
| team of Lezcano/Dutrow were sending a 5 year old | | | | payoff on the winner, Lemons of Love, was |
| Gelding, Lemons of Love, to post at odds of 7-2. The | | | | $9.40 3.80 3.20. Also, because Mr. Umphrey finished |
| morning line on Lemons of Love was 3-1, so even | | | | fourth, the exotics paid well for such a short field. |
| though the connections looked pretty hot and the track | | | | Whenever you are having trouble picking winners, |
| handicapper thought highly of the horse, it was going | | | | remember this simple example, take a step back and |
| off a bit over morning line odds. This isn't exactly a | | | | look at the very basics and see if there isn't some |
| huge red flag waving in our faces, but it does cause us | | | | obvious bit of information that can be coupled with one |
| to take another look and to consider it a good bet. | | | | other bit of information to point you toward a good bet. |
| The favorite in the race, a 6 year old gelding, Mr. | | | | |