The First Saturday in May - My Pick

It has been called "The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports"distances faster in his final prep.
and, of course, "The Run for The Roses".  The 
Kentucky Derby is my favorite sporting event of the- I Want Revenge posted a BULLET workout (fastest
year and a GREAT EXCUSE TO WEAR Aof the day) on Tuesday, working 4 furlongs in 41.2
SEERSUCKER SUIT!seconds - the fastest of 49 other horses.
 
My success in picking the actual winner has beenWho I am fearful of
rocky, at best.  I attended my first Derby in 1993 and 
haven't missed one since.  For several years I#16 - Pioneer of the Nile
doubted that I would ever cash a ticket on the winner,- Career best Beyer of 96. Not fast enough??
but that all changed in 2006 with Barbaro.  Ridden by- Trainer Baffert has won three Derbies and he is
my favorite jockey, Edgar Prado, I had been pulling fortalking a good game.
Barbaro well in advance of the 132nd edition of the- Never raced on dirt before. Can he handle the
greatest horse race in the world.Churchill Downs dirt track?
- Garrett Gomez, the best jockey in America, chose
That win snapped my 0 for 13 losing streak.this horse over Dunkirk.
The following year brought Street Sense.  I had him 
too.  Two in a row!  My fortunes had changed and I#15 - Dunkirk
was convinced that I was poised to pick the winner- Only three lifetime races. But Big Brown was lightly
each and every year from now on.raced too. Look how that turned out?
Last year, Kentucky Derby 134, brought me back- How long can trainer Todd Pletcher's drought at the
down to earth.  I went with Pyro. Big Brown ROLLED.Derby last?
(On a side note: I went to the Belmont Stakes,- Edgar Prado is onboard. I hate to bet against MY
convinced that I was about to see Big Brown winMAN!
the first triple crown since Affirmed in 1978.  That- His Tomlinson Figure for 1 ¼ miles is only 281. I
didn't work out too well...)Want Revenge is 331 and Pioneer Of The Nile is 328.
This year, I am going with......The higher the better.
#13 - I Want Revenge 
#6 - Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge, coincidentally, has the same- Larry Jones charge comes out of a good post
connections as Big Brown.  Even though that factposition (6) and is fresh after posting a bullet workout
alone makes me nervous (two years in a row for theof his own on Monday. This was very similar to two
same ownership team?), I still think he is just too good.other horses Larry Jones trained for the Derby
The young hotshot of Animal Planet's "Jockeys" show,recently: Hard Spun - second in 2007, and Eight Belles -
Joe Talamo, takes the reigns in the biggest race of hissecond in 2008.
life.- He has shown the ability to run well on an off track.
Could it be soft on Derby Day?
Why I think he will win 
 #7 - Papa Clem
- He has the highest lifetime Beyer speed figure (113) in- Could he be peaking at the right time?
the field, by far.- Winner of the Arkansas Derby.
 - Upward Beyer speed figure trend.
- The horse had an incredibly difficult trip in its last race, 
the Wood Memorial, but was able to post andPost time is 6:24 (coverage begins at 4 pm on NBC).
impressive last to first win. This experience shouldHopefully, at 6:26 I will be enjoying a tall frosty Mint
come in handy in a 20 horse field that is traditionallyJulep while celebrating the victory of I Want Revenge.
crowded around the turns.
 UPDATE
- The Louisville Courier Journal came up with anI Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby
interesting predictor of Derby success several yearsearly on Saturday morning with some slight
ago. In a horse's final 1 1/8 mile prep race, he should runlameness.  My official Derby pick then became
the final eighth in under 13 seconds and the final 3/8 inDunkirk (at about 6-1 odds).  Mine That Bird pulled off
under 38 seconds. This is a measure of stamina. In thea MAJOR UPSET at over 50-1 odds....on to Baltimore
Wood, I Want Revenge ran his last 1/8 in 11.91 and theand the Preakness.
last 3/8 in 36.37. Only Hold Me Back ran both of those