| Now if that doesn't get you excited for the first | | | | highest to lowest based on their 2nd highest lifetime |
| Saturday in May, I don't know what will! | | | | speed rating (as opposed to the horses top speed |
| I'd like to share a method of picking the Kentucky | | | | rating) |
| Derby Winner with you that has worked incredibly well. | | | | Many times a horse will pop one really good race right |
| It's so easy even a complete beginner can pick the | | | | before the Derby. Usually this happens because the |
| most likely winner in less than 5 minutes. This simple 6 | | | | horse ran over a biased track or the trainer had the |
| step process has picked the Kentucky Derby winner 7 | | | | horse ready to run a peak race prior to the Derby to |
| out of the last 12 years using only 1-2 horses. | | | | get enough earnings to qualify for the race. |
| Every horse racing fan has a theory on how to pick | | | | The media and experts will be going gaga over these |
| the Kentucky Derby winner. But if it doesn't take | | | | one hit wonder horses. But the lone huge race typically |
| foundation and current performance into account, it will | | | | takes so much out of the horse that it rarely even |
| eventually fail. There are some notable examples in | | | | finishes in the money in the Kentucky Derby. The |
| this group. The Dual qualifier method has lost 10 out of | | | | horse lacks the necessary foundation. |
| the last 11 years but had picked the Kentucky Derby | | | | Cliff's Edge, Bellamy Road and Sinister Minister are |
| winner 20 out of the previous 23 years. Silly rules like | | | | some of the more recent low odds horses that have |
| no gelding has ever won the Derby (until Funny Cide), | | | | fell victim to this. |
| no 2 year old Breeders Cup winner has ever won the | | | | Step 5) The contenders to win the Kentucky Derby |
| Derby (until Street Sense) all eventually fail too. | | | | are the top 2 highest rated horses based on step #4 |
| The dosage theory still works pretty well, but almost all | | | | and those within 1 point of the second ranked horse. |
| the horses qualify which doesn't help you in deciding | | | | Step 6) If there are only 2 horses left, those are your |
| who to bet. Plus you would have missed longshot | | | | win bets. If there are more than two horses left, bet |
| horses like Giacomo, Real Quiet and Charismatic. | | | | the horses with the highest speed figure last race. If still |
| To help you out and put you on the right track I'd like to | | | | tied bet the horse with the highest lifetime speed figure. |
| present you with some guidelines based on foundation | | | | Or better yet, simply bet the qualifying horses going off |
| and current performance that have worked well | | | | at the highest odds to win and key them in the exotic |
| enough to pick the Kentucky Derby winner 7 out of | | | | bets. This is the most profitable long term approach. |
| the last 12 years. | | | | Notable longshot Kentucky Derby winners using this |
| I've listed the 6 step process below. Please note that | | | | method include Real Quiet, Monarchos,, War Emblem, |
| this article was written a couple weeks before the | | | | Funny Cide and Barbaroo along with some favorites. |
| Derby so not all the necessary information was | | | | Last year Eight Belles was the top rated qualifier by 4 |
| available; | | | | points using Beyer speed figures (Big Brown was |
| Step 1) Eliminate any horse that hasn't run one of its 2 | | | | eliminated because he only had one race before |
| highest lifetime speed ratings in its last 2 races. | | | | December of the previous year). I received happy |
| A horse has to be in top form to win the Derby. You'll | | | | e-mails from many who boxed Big Brown to Eight |
| see many horses over bet in the Derby because they | | | | Belles for an easy exact. |
| were stars at age 2 but have not developed further. | | | | This year's highest rated qualifier will be the likely |
| Last years example was Pyro who was very over | | | | Kentucky Derby favorite, I Want Revenge. He qualifies |
| bet in the Derby because of his previous years races. | | | | on all 6 rules and has outstanding speed figures and |
| This year it doesn't look like there will be any over bet | | | | late pace ratings in his last two races. I prefer to play |
| horses based on 2 year old performance but this step | | | | longshots but if I Want Revenge looks good on Derby |
| would eliminate a horse like General Quarters. | | | | day, I'll take 3-1 odds and be happy with my choice. |
| Step 2) Eliminate any horse that hasn't run 2 races | | | | The only possible concern is that Jeff Mullins was |
| prior to December 1st of the previous year (some | | | | caught in the detention barn on Wood Memorial day |
| people prefer to use 1 race). These are still good | | | | with a legal medication. Problem is; every trainer and |
| horses to use in exotic bets. | | | | owner knows you're not allowed to bring anything into |
| This step almost falls under the category of a silly rule | | | | the detention barn. Mullins knew this too. He already |
| but the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without | | | | has a long list of violations so perhaps he was playing |
| racing at age 2 was Apollo in 1882. With the direction | | | | games and doing something he shouldn't have, but then |
| racing is going this may change soon though so tread | | | | again maybe not. We'll never know and he's probably |
| lightly with this step. | | | | not too worried. He won't face any possible |
| There have been quite a few low odds horses | | | | suspension until after the Triple Crown races and then |
| recently that have been eliminated by this rule. These | | | | it will be a "paid vacation" as his stable continues to |
| include Congaree (3rd), Empire Maker (2nd), Bellamy | | | | operate. |
| Road (out) and Curlin (3rd). There are two highly | | | | I hope this article has given you a good foundation on |
| regarded contenders this year that would be eliminated | | | | how to find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. |
| by this rule, Quality Road and Dunkirk. | | | | Although I've done extremely well overall in the Derby |
| Step 3) Eliminate any horse that has not run in the last | | | | using the 6 rules above as my foundation, horse racing |
| 45 days. | | | | constantly changes and as horse players we have to |
| The Kentucky Derby is a brutal race for young horses. | | | | change with it. |
| They're facing the toughest field of competitors | | | | If you'd like more detail on how to pick the Derby |
| they've ever run against at a distance that's longer | | | | Winners and exact horses, learn another simple |
| than they've ever run. | | | | method that's picked the Preakness Winner 9 out of |
| If the horse hasn't raced in more than 45 prior to the | | | | the last 12 years or learn to handicap and bet a little |
| Derby it's not by design, it's because something was | | | | better go to and order Winning Moves; How To Win |
| wrong for the horse and conditioning will be a question. | | | | At Horse Racing. |
| A top contender this year that would be eliminated by | | | | Note: and typically provide free past performances for |
| this rule is Friesan Fire. | | | | the Kentucky Derby the week of the Derby. |
| Step 4) Of the remaining horses, rank the horses | | | | |