| Handicapping harness races using pace is a lot | | | | what you see is basically what you get. |
| different than handicapping thoroughbred races using | | | | A 90 pound jockey, perched with only his or her toes |
| pace. Let me ask you this, "Are you trying to use | | | | in the stirrups, just doesn't have that much control over |
| pace to handicap harness races and if so, are you | | | | a thousand pound thoroughbred. In other words, you |
| making any money?" While it makes sense to think | | | | determine pace in a thoroughbred race by looking at |
| that Standardbreds, because of their consistency, | | | | the horse, and then give a slight nod to the rider. |
| would be even more likely to conform to their own | | | | Pace handicapping a harness race is different |
| figures and racing styles, that isn't necessarily the case. | | | | because the larger driver, with feet braced in the |
| The problem of trying to determine where each horse | | | | stirrups of the bike, has much better control over an |
| will pace or trot is even more difficult on a half mile or | | | | animal that is generally more tractable than a |
| five eighths mile track. With a few exceptions, such | | | | thoroughbred. Let's say our example is a one mile |
| as a horse in the 1 post who loves to leave (get out | | | | dash over a half mile track. The 1 has some early |
| first and stay in the lead) it is difficult to predict the | | | | speed and we figure a first quarter in 30 flat. In this |
| actual order or position of the horse. | | | | group it may put him in first position. |
| As anyone who handicaps harness races knows, the | | | | The 2 is a plodder and can't leave so it will get shuffled |
| path that a horse spends most of the race in and the | | | | back but come with a rush at the end. |
| cover or lack of cover is very important and makes or | | | | The 3 is good for about a 30 as well, so the question |
| breaks the horse. The problem isn't just the horse | | | | is, will the driver leave with it and try to take the lead in |
| and where it might find itself as they all scramble for | | | | front of the 1 and if so, will the 1 come right back for |
| position at the beginning of the race, it is also the driver | | | | the lead and thereby put the 3 in the garden spot? |
| and where he or she might try to put the horse. | | | | But wait, before we figure that one out, the 4 has |
| Let's look at a hypothetical situation to see just how | | | | good early speed and we figure it for a 29.2 first |
| complicated this is. First we will look at a one mile | | | | quarter. Can it and will it leave and take the 1 spot? |
| thoroughbred race. It can be around two turns or just | | | | That depends upon whether the driver of the 3 |
| one. It is fairly easy to see which horses have early | | | | decides to push for the lead or tries to tuck behind the |
| speed and knowing that thoroughbreds are harder to | | | | 1 when the 2 drops back. We have only looked at 4 |
| control during a race, what you see is about what you | | | | of the 8 horses and we already have too many |
| get. A good jockey might be able to throttle back a | | | | possibilities to reasonable handicap and make |
| little on a keen runner but basically, a thoroughbred | | | | assumptions about. So much of it depends upon |
| gets out of the gate and takes the jockey for a ride. | | | | how the race shapes up at the start and how each |
| So you determine which horse(s) will want the lead | | | | driver manages his or her pacer. |
| and which one(s) will be content to run off that pace | | | | Therefore, unless the 1 has blinding early speed and will |
| set by the leaders. You determine the quarters of | | | | definitely leave and keep the lead, it is very hard to |
| the race and figure where each runner will be. While | | | | apply pace handicapping and position handicapping to a |
| a jockey may try to make his or her mount lay farther | | | | harness race. |
| off the pace or get out quicker to challenge a leader, | | | | |