| Handicapping a horse race requires the comparison of | | | | calculations for each factor and each horse, a realistic |
| different factors and arriving at a value for each horse. | | | | score can be shown and indicate which runner has the |
| In other words, the value equals what you think the | | | | best chance of winning. |
| horse's chance of winning might be. A simple example | | | | Experience will then help you to develop a morning line |
| would be adding the last three speed figures for each | | | | for each horse. It all comes down to probability and |
| horse and then assigning probable win odds for each | | | | value. If you want to make a 20% return on your |
| horse based on its speed total. | | | | investment (bets) then you must be able to find bets |
| It might look something like this... | | | | that are worth at least 20% more than that runner's |
| 1. Flying Aces speed= 220 odds=2-1 | | | | chances of winning based on the score. For instance, if |
| 2. Rubber Legs speed= 210 odds=3-1 | | | | I know that a horse has a 25% chance of winning and |
| 3. Goosey speed= 200 odds= 4-1etc... | | | | is going off at odds of 5-1, then I know that for every |
| Of course, basing your betting decisions on just one | | | | 4 such horses I bet, one will win and pay $12.00 based |
| factor isn't very sophisticated or likely to make a profit. | | | | on a $2 bet. Since I have bet it 4 times and spent a |
| It takes more than that to arrive at a good judgment | | | | base amount of $8 and got back $12, I have made $4 |
| of each runner's chances. | | | | profit which is 50% of my investment, a very good |
| That is where weighting the factors becomes | | | | return, indeed. |
| important. While speed is important, is it really the most | | | | Naturally, while all this sounds good and works out well |
| important factor in the race? You have to decide | | | | on paper, in the real world, making a profit betting on |
| which handicapping factor is the most important and | | | | horse races is extremely difficult. The reason is that so |
| therefore give it the most weight. Practice and keeping | | | | many people who understand this concept are doing |
| notes about each race and class will eventually help | | | | the very same thing and also because racing is such a |
| you to develop a weighted list of horse racing factors. | | | | risky enterprise. Jockeys lose their whips in the stretch, |
| A hierarchy of factors then is developed and a better | | | | horses fall down, horses are disqualified for bumping, |
| understanding of each runner's chances is revealed. | | | | and sometimes, they just don't run well. |
| You may determine that recent speed is worth 60% | | | | Therefore, if you are lucky and good enough to make |
| of the total score, class is worth 30%, and connections | | | | 10% profit over the long haul, you are doing very well |
| are worth 10%. Then, after you have made the | | | | as a handicapper. |