| Everyday across the U.S. and anywhere else horses | | | | to you. |
| are raced, long shots win races. It is a fact of life and | | | | My idea of a legitimate favorite is one that has already |
| knowing when a long shot is a sleeper is one of the | | | | done what it is being asked to do in the current race. If |
| best ways to make some fast money. That is why so | | | | it hasn't then there is room for serious doubt. If the |
| many losers are bet everyday. Because the few long | | | | favorite hasn't won at the distance or surface or |
| shots who do win convince bettors that the next one | | | | against males or older horses, then you might want to |
| is just around the corner. | | | | start looking for another contender. The best way to |
| A horse at long odds wins a race and for the rest of | | | | do that is to compare the basic merits of each runner |
| the day people are scouring their programs looking for | | | | and use a good system to really understand and rate |
| another big score. But the fact of the matter is that | | | | each runner's capabilities based on past performance. |
| they are still few and far between in most cases and | | | | Some people use computer systems while others use |
| therefore deserve to be long shots. But there are | | | | simple graphs or charts that show how important each |
| some times when it pays to back a long shot and here | | | | factor is and how much of a difference each horse |
| are a few of the best reasons. | | | | shows in each category. A good example of this is |
| First of all, it all starts with eliminating the favorite. | | | | Ladder Handicapping It is amazing how a simple |
| Favorites win about a third of the time so if the | | | | graphic like a ladder can point out a legitimate long shot. |
| favorite is legitimate and going off at short odds, pass | | | | What it all comes down to is that if you don't know |
| the race. Over the years I've found that I just can't | | | | how important each factor is and how each horse |
| make a profit betting on favorites that go off at less | | | | rates in that category, you are pretty much |
| than 2 to 1. If you can really bet the favorite at shorter | | | | handicapping blindly. At that point, the biggest long shot |
| odds and show a profit over time, then my hat is off | | | | at the track is you. |