| In early July of 2009, I began noticing a pattern | | | | Now, before you get too excited, let me tell you the |
| developing that looked quite promising. I noticed that | | | | bad news. You could not make any money betting |
| short-priced favorites that had three things in common | | | | these horses. |
| were winning a lot of races. | | | | Yes, you read that correctly! I found a selection |
| On July 19, 2009, I began documenting the results of | | | | method that produced 59 percent winners, required no |
| horses that went to post with these three factors in | | | | handicapping, took just seconds to act upon, yet I could |
| common. I concluded the study on August 31, 2009 | | | | not have made a profit had I bet them. |
| after observing 155 'playable' races. | | | | A token bet of $2 on each of these 155 selections |
| During this study, 92 of the 155 horses that went to | | | | would have required an outlay of $310. The 92 winners |
| post having these three factors in common won - a | | | | returned a total of $309.80. So, after playing 155 races |
| 59 percent win rate. These horses placed a total of | | | | over a span of six weeks, you would have had a loss |
| 124 times - that is 80 percent. They were one of the | | | | of 20 cents. To be fair, that would have provided most |
| top three finishers in the race a total of 147 times. | | | | racegoers with a lot of action and they would not |
| They were in-the-money 95 percent of the time. | | | | have lost a great deal of money. But it is not the way I |
| Are dollar signs flashing through your mind right now? | | | | want to spend my time at the races. |
| The three factors these horses had in common were: | | | | The same $310 bet to place on these 155 horses |
| 1. Each horse was the morning line favorite listed at | | | | would have resulted in a loss of $7.30. Show betting |
| odds of 9/5 or less. | | | | would have resulted in a loss of $11.50. |
| 2. Each horse had a Brisnet Profit Line that was 9/5 or | | | | Hopefully you will take from this article the realization |
| less. | | | | that betting on favorites (especially short-priced |
| 3. Each horse went to post as the favorite with final | | | | favorites) is not the way to make money at the races. |
| odds less than 2/1. | | | | |