| The trouble with handicapping maiden horse races, and | | | | sires and brood mares produce foals that win in the |
| one of the reasons some people avoid betting on | | | | first or second race if trained properly. The stats for |
| them, is that it is hard to know how fast a horse can | | | | these precocious types are easily available in most |
| run if it only had one or two races and impossible if it | | | | advanced past performances. A sire with an FTS |
| had no races. So how do you handicap speed in | | | | average of 20% or more is a very good sign. Of |
| maiden races? Very carefully. | | | | course it depends upon the trainer's style as well. |
| On the other hand, speed figures for maidens can | | | | Some trainers are just naturally adept at winning with |
| point out a lot of winners and that is why maiden | | | | young horses. |
| races produce their share of winning favorites. One of | | | | Another good sign is a progression of works including |
| the nice things about maidens is that they are a classic | | | | some 5 furlong works. The works should be evenly |
| example of the old saying, "What you see is what you | | | | spaced and show some speed. If an FTS has a good |
| get." | | | | trainer and shows good breeding and works, it will |
| For instance, when a maiden flashes good early speed | | | | probably be bet down accordingly. If those signs aren't |
| in its first race, you know the horse likes to run fast | | | | clear, but the horse is bet down, you can figure that is |
| and has some good speed. Now you just need a | | | | money coming from the backstretch. |
| trainer and jockey who can figure out how to settle | | | | The other trainers, owners, jockeys have been |
| the horse and conserve some of that speed to make | | | | watching the young horses work in the morning and |
| it to the end of the race. The addition of blinkers, | | | | know which ones are likely to win first out. Always |
| working in the company of other horses, a tongue tie, | | | | pay attention to the money on a first time starter. |
| all these things may be done to get the baby horse to | | | | While it may just be a wad of cash dropped by an |
| finish strong in its next race. | | | | overly optimistic owner, it is more likely that it is the |
| It may just be a matter of a few more races as well. | | | | backing of people who have watched the horse and |
| Young horses are learning how to run with other | | | | think it is a good one. |
| horses and how to compete. They learn about pace | | | | So when handicapping speed in maiden races, the first |
| and position and within a few races usually do much | | | | thing to do is to look for the obvious, a horse who |
| better. But then there is that most dreaded of all | | | | raced well in its last race and came up a little short. If it |
| maiden runners, the first time starter (FTS). How can | | | | has a good speed figure and seems to be coming |
| you tell what an FTS will do? | | | | back fit and ready to race, it will usually have a good |
| One place to look is the breeding of the horse. Some | | | | race and is the top choice to win. |