| Every year, millions of people try to handicap the | | | | dosage, the more likely the horse will handle the mile |
| Kentucky Derby. While other great horse races in | | | | and a quarter. |
| America may have bigger purses and offer some of | | | | Many times when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, |
| the best racing on the planet, the Kentucky Derby is | | | | would be prognosticators focus on speed figures. |
| the classic American Race for three-year-olds. | | | | While not completely irrelevant, they do not weigh as |
| Traditionally contested on the first Saturday in May | | | | heavily as dosage, pace, and form when finding a |
| each year, the Derby is limited to a field of 20. | | | | good bet. Once you have determined which horses |
| However, since each horse in the race is being asked | | | | are bred for the distance, the next task is to determine |
| to do something it has not attempted in the past, that is | | | | which horses are rounding into form at the right time. In |
| more than enough entries to strain any horse racing | | | | horse racing, timing is crucial and trainers try to have |
| handicapper's brain. | | | | their horses physical form peaking on the first |
| The key to handicapping the first leg of the Triple | | | | Saturday in May. Look at the races leading up to the |
| Crown (the Preakness and Belmont are the other two | | | | Derby and try to determine how the horse has |
| legs) is understanding that it is a classic race at a | | | | progressed and what it may have left. |
| classic distance. The Kentucky Derby is contested | | | | Pace is a big part of the race as well. Very few front |
| over 1 1/4 miles. That is farther than the 3 year old | | | | runners have won the Derby, but horses who have |
| horses have raced up until then and usually, because | | | | both tactical speed and a good late kick fare very well. |
| all 20 posts are filled, it is a bigger field than they have | | | | Because traffic problems abound and it is sometimes |
| competed against. | | | | necessary to weave through the pack or to go wide |
| The changes to field size and distance make a big | | | | in the stretch, runners need to be able to shift gears. |
| difference and make it difficult to project just which | | | | While the last Derby winner, Mine That Bird, was able |
| horses will be able to handle the distance and | | | | to slip through on the rail with a very skillful and lucky |
| pandemonium. Traffic problems abound for Derby | | | | pilot in Calvin Borel, such trips are rare. |
| horses and getting a good trip can mean the | | | | The last bit of advice on the Kentucky Derby that I |
| difference between success and failure. You can't | | | | would like to share with you is that there are several |
| handicap racing luck, but you can handicap breeding, | | | | kinds of races for true horse players. There are |
| form, and pace. | | | | playing races and watching races. While the Derby is |
| First look at the breeding of the horses and determine | | | | interesting it is usually not a good race to make money |
| which ones are bred to go the classic distance. Some | | | | on unless you have a crystal ball. Watch it and enjoy it |
| past performances now offer what is called the | | | | but save the major portion of your bankroll for races |
| "Dosage Index," for each horse, a mathematical way | | | | that are easier to handicap with more manageable |
| of determining a score based on the preferred racing | | | | fields and horses who have proven they can do what |
| distances of the horses ancestors. The lower the | | | | is being asked of them. |