| We've all had the experience of picking a horse to win | | | | focuses on the favorite and the obvious choices for |
| but getting such lousy odds on it that we pass it by, | | | | second. Typically, there will be a few exactas that are |
| figuring it is not a value bet. Then, when the horse wins, | | | | over bet, but that means there will also be underlays in |
| it hurts to know that we passed up cashing, even | | | | the pool. |
| though we realize that we must stick to value bets or | | | | The most obvious way to find value is to find the |
| eventually lose our bankroll. | | | | horse that is the second favorite in the exacta pool, in |
| I will always advocate insisting on value in a bet. Indeed, | | | | other words, the lowest paying exacta with the |
| I'll go one step farther. The art of making profits on | | | | favorite, and to determine if that horse deserves to be |
| horse races is the art of handicapping combined with | | | | the second favorite and if it is over bet. In other words, |
| the business of identifying value in wagers. Without | | | | if you can't eliminate the favorite in the race, can you |
| finding value, you are only solving half the puzzle. While | | | | eliminate the second favorite? |
| handicapping and picking winners is fun, it can be | | | | There is no reliable formula that I know of to |
| expensive fun if you don't discipline yourself to only bet | | | | accurately determine fair value in an exacta, though |
| on horses that are undervalued by the crowd. | | | | many have tried. I think that practice and experience |
| The favorite wins about a third of the races, but | | | | are the two keys to knowing what a good price is in |
| betting to win on favorites is a losing proposition. If you | | | | the exacta pool. |
| like a horse to win, but can't find value in the win pool, | | | | Of course, this all depends upon your ability to |
| you can still put your handicapping skill to good use and | | | | determine that the favorite really does deserve all the |
| perhaps, find value in the exacta pools. The crowd | | | | action it is taking and that requires experience, as well. |