| Not a morning line, a betting line. Which happens to be | | | | money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. |
| your line. Your odds! You decide what you think the | | | | That is called an advantage! So if you have made this |
| horses odds should be and bet accordingly.How many | | | | horse 1-1 and the odds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? |
| times have you gone to the track and you are all | | | | No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at |
| excited that you have got this one horse who you | | | | 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the |
| think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to | | | | logic? As a astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, |
| get anywhere from 6-1 up to 10-1. The morning line will | | | | you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps |
| even show it at 6-1. So your at the track and the | | | | passing races if you not getting your price. Only if you |
| betting for that particular race opens up. On the tote | | | | want to create a profit over the long run. If your there |
| board are the odds for you to see on the horse you | | | | for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking |
| love and what? He is 2-1,9-5,8-5? | | | | it is about picking winners right? Chances are the guy |
| What happened? You thought you were going to get | | | | who picked four winner made less money than the |
| a price? But you know what, so did everyone else. | | | | guy who wagered for profit and value had 2 winners |
| That does not mean he is not going to win. It just | | | | ended up with a better profit. |
| means your not going get the price you though you | | | | So how does one construct a "betting line?" It takes |
| were. The question now becomes...Is he still a bet? | | | | practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it |
| Why is this a question? You love the horse, and you | | | | works, you will be amazed at what you can pull off, |
| were ready and excited to put down $20 to win and | | | | especially some high prices.You basically assign odds |
| now what? What changed? The odds | | | | to every horse in the race. If you can throw out one or |
| changed,nothing more. Your perception as a | | | | two even better. Your betting line basically adds up to |
| handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a | | | | 100%. There is a 100% chance that a horse will win the |
| great chance to win this race. The problem now has | | | | race. Whether its yours or not who knows. But as you |
| become is he worth your price of a wager or not? | | | | assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the |
| The fact that you thought you were going to get a | | | | field you have to demand a higher return of |
| good price on this horse means there were going to | | | | expectation based on the odds given to each horse.If |
| be other horses to consider. If you thought you were | | | | you made the1 horse is 3-1 in your line and he is on the |
| going to get a 6-1,7-1 10-1 price then other horses must | | | | tote board at 2-1, he is not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 |
| of figured just as well to win. What odds should they | | | | on the tote and your line shows 5-1, he is not a bet. If |
| be. What odds should your horse be? What if you | | | | horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. |
| really scoured the past performances for your horse | | | | There is your bet! "Ya don't have to like him, ya bet |
| and you thought for sure he has got a great chance | | | | him!" |
| to win,what would his odds be? If they ran the race a | | | | The art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. |
| 100 times how many races would he win? What | | | | Reading between the lines in the past performances, |
| percentage out of a 100 races would he win? | | | | knowing jockey patterns and my favorite trainer |
| Alright, percentage! One must know that odds are | | | | patterns is how you arrive at different odds than most |
| basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only | | | | of the betting crowd.Making and producing betting lines |
| problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the | | | | for races can be tedious and sometimes simple,but at |
| odds of each horse in a race into percentages and | | | | the same time fun and rewarding indeed. This was a |
| add them up, it will always come out to be around 118 | | | | concept taught to me by an author and handicapper |
| -125%. 125%?? Its called the "track take". A morning | | | | by the name of mark cramer. I was one of his many |
| line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is | | | | students a long time ago.He taught a class on this |
| not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be | | | | subject called (theory of probability applied to |
| whittled down to wherever you like depending on any | | | | thoroughbred racing) I believe it was la city college |
| horses you can throw out! A smart handicapper | | | | near korea town in los angeles.He has also authored |
| makes his own odds.So the horse you love, say you | | | | plenty of what I call "timeless" books on thoroughbred |
| gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. | | | | racing and handicapping.He is remarkable on the |
| What now are you determining his odds to be? Right | | | | subject and I suggest everyone look into his |
| 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss. Fifty wins and 50 | | | | assortment of excellent teaching and awareness of |
| losses. | | | | making betting lines and betting the races. Two of |
| His current odds showing up on the tote board are | | | | them I liked are the odds on your side and |
| 2-1.Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even | | | | thoroughbred cycles . |