Dispelling the Myth that the Winner of the Kentucky Derby is the Best Three Year Old Thoroughbred

Is the Kentucky Derby the best indicator of successtwo million dollar payout in 2005)
for future thoroughbreds? On the surface most of usOver the last ten years the Kentucky Derby winner
would answer of course, the best horses run in thehas produced six three year old champions, the
Derby, so the best horse must win. But a closer lookTravers has produced just two.
at some simple statistics tell a different story.What I find more compelling, however, is that out of
There are a number of good races that can indicate athe three year olds that have won the Derby over the
quality race horse. Among these are the Kentuckylast 10 years only Charismatic has went on to win the
Derby, the Travers Stakes, and the Breeders Cupoutright Horse of the year title, while three Travers
Classic. Each of these races are run annually, severalwinners (Point Given, Tiznow, and Skipaway), have
months apart from each other. The three year oldgone on to win Horse of the Year.
horse of the year, most often must win at least one ofMy take on the Kentucky Derby is this. There are a
these races, to have an opportunity to be Three Yearnumber of quality horses that are entered into the
Old Horse of the Year.Kentucky Derby, sometimes, in my humble opinion, too
In the last ten years Giacomo, Smarty Jones, Funnymany horses are entered. One small missed stride, too
Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus,much traffic, a long spring, and any nummber of things
Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, and Grindstonego into deciding who wins the Derby and sometimes
have one the Kentucky Derby. More often than notthe best horse does not win. So while the Derby is the
the Derby winner ends up running in the Traverspremier race for those of us in the States, we need to
Stakes as well.understand one important thing about the Derby itself, it
In the last ten years, none of the Kentucky Derbyis a very wonderful race, rich in tradition, but winning it
winners have went on to win the Travers Stakes.is only one very small factor in determining how good
Both the Travers and the Derby are Grade 1 Stakesa horse will be throughout its career.
races with a million dollar purse. (The Derby went to a